This weekend we’ve got the biggest competition we have ever observed for DraftKings MMA. We’ve got a $10 entry contest with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of that to 1st place. I never believed we’d observe a 6-figure 1st place prize for MMA but that I was wrong and I can not wait to pursue it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov will be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings simply made it bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights so we can observe a range of ties for that 1st place prize, so strive to be different with your lineups someplace, or leave wages on the table to differ in that manner. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this weekend along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the”safest” drama on the card by a good margin in his -900 gaming lineup. I love plugging in these high likelihood guys in cash so I can lock a triumph in there and fret about finding 3 other wins from my 5 other spots. We usually only need 4 wins in money games to beat the cash line, so that is what I shoot for in those 50/50 or double up games. Luque has been very remarkable in his UFC run and he’s beat some pretty big names. On paper, this is only one of his easiest matches nonetheless. He also has big time upside with his completing potential. He has an ITD line of -270, so that I believe we could have 100+ points in this triumph. He is a fantastic play in all formats, however he is going to be chalky in tournaments, so that’s why he’s my money play of the week instead.
GPP play of this week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are almost always excellent to aim in GPPs because it only takes 1 shot with a lot of these men. I think that this is a good matchup for Volkov and he is only priced at $8.7k weekly. If he can find a 1st round KO at the price, he will probably be on the winning LU. Same goes for Lewis, so he is a good GPP drama as well. However, my pick to win will be Volkov and that I like his cost. I think a few guys priced above him this week will be a lot more possessed, therefore we could find a heavyweight favorite at lower possession here. Fight Does Not Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -190, so this is a fantastic GPP fight to aim over all. If you like the Black Beast to get the W, then he’s a good fighter to throw on your GPP LUs.
Underdog play of this week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
Here really is the best odds value on the card. Currently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 higher than Martin. I love searching online worth like that which alone puts Martin in play in all formats. Martin also has the better odds to finish this battle ITD, so that’s another plus with him. I like the flooring for Martin in money games as well because Laflare isn’t very likely to complete if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we could afford a reduction from Martin and just take the points he could rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win . However, he is going to need to get a finish to pay off his $8.6k price tag. Sergio will not be heading for almost any takedowns in this battle, and he doesn’t strike a high enough speed for him to get 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio will be the better fighter around the toes, but if he does not get a finish he then probably only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores don’t cut it at $8.6k. There are only better plays points each dollar and those are the men I’ll be targeting. Sergio is a solid fade if you are making 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
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