This weekend, we’ve got a card in Brazil. DraftKings has some decent contests out there for this Fight Night card, and this is rare for all these free ones. The principal tourney is an $8 entrance and pays $20k to 1st. That’s the main GPP I will be chasing this week. As always, I’m in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs too. However, this week DraftKings includes two competitions for trips out to Vegas to see the McGregor vs Khabib fight. Hotel, flight, and struggles all paid for. The floor chairs contest is a $33 entrance and the non-floor seats competition is simply a $15 entrance. I am going to need to take a few shots at that as well. Also, DraftKings just released a contest for UFC 299 that is a $10 entry having a massive $100,000 to 1st place. That’s unquestionably the greatest prize we have seen in DFS MMA, so let us build a bankroll this weekend so we are able to shoot a few extra shots at that $100k. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Livia Renata Souza ($9,600)
Livia Souza is the safest win on the card and I think she gets this fight finished early. That is where I am starting my money LUs weekly. Only give me the -1100 favored who’s being fed an easy win , for my cash games. I really do like a lot of the top favorites on this card, I simply are the most shocked when Souza lost. I think she is good in both formats, but she will probably be chalky in GPPs, so cash games would be the best place to get your Souza investment nowadays. Simply take this triumph, then find others and you should be good in money games.
GPP play of the week — Charles Oliveira ($9,400)
I’m a big Charles”Do Bronx” Oliveira enthusiast, and he has some of my own favorites submissions in UFC history. I think we could see another awesome one here. This battle seems easy to call. Do Bronx will look for the early takedown and when he can get it then he likely gets a 1st round sub. If that happens he should lock up a solid 100 points and I am pretty confident in that being the results of the fight, so that is why he is my GPP drama of the week. He’s also my GPP drama of the week, rather than my Money play of the week for a reason. If he can’t get the takedown(s) early, then he’ll likely quit and get finished himself with strikes. I really don’t enjoy that danger of a low floor because of my own cash LU, therefore I prefer Souza there. But in GPPs I enjoy saving the $200 and moving down to perform Bronx.
Underdog drama of the week — Eryk Anders ($7,600)
I would like Anders a lot more if he wasn’t taking this fight on short notice, and when it was not in Brazil. But he can have a clear path to victory here and that’s by knocking out Santos who doesn’t have a great chin. Anders could also opt for takedowns in this struggle and he could win with a few hard GNP too. At $7.6k he’ll almost surely end up on the winning LU when he’s able to acquire the KO. This is the major event, so he’ll have 5 rounds to work with. I do think that is a good matchup for Anders, however he must be aggressive and not hang out to the outside. When he hangs out on the exterior as long Santos will consume up him with kicks and it could be a brief night for Anders. I will select him to get the win here as an underdog in Brazil and I think he has it completed in the first two rounds with a KO. That will easily pay off his $7.6k salary and it will win you a GPP if you’re able to get your additional 5 spots right also.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($9,200)
Sam Alvey is a fade for me. I wrote him up as my fade of the week here, I was quite wrong and that he scored over 100 points. If this happens , then so be it. But I refuse to rely on an early KO triumph to cover off a 9.2k salary from a man who does not throw several strikes. At $9.2k I need at least 92 points out of Alvey if I roll up him and the only way get caught that is with a 1st round KO win. That could occur here against a 42-year-old Lil Nog, but I am not willing to invest my money in it.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my personal strategies & suggestions, and my pick outlook for every single fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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