This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first ever UFC on large ESPN card and DK has some decent competitions for us for this Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy and $20k goes to 1st place, also there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that final contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll probably stick to the very best GPP this week and toss 50 or so entries at that $20k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a fantastic amount of play into cash games. With that said, let us get to a few plays I like too as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is the most powerful play on the slate, in my view. I think he’ll be the better fighter everywhere this fight moves, and he must predominate. I like locking that triumph in my cash game and I think he’s a good shot at getting 10x his $9.4k salary. I really do expect him to become hot in tournaments so if you want to fade the possession there and attempt to become more contrarian, I’d definitely need some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is tough so he can last all 3 rounds and when he can then Luque could score in the 80s and that won’t win any GPPs. However, we can use an ~80-point win in cash games since we just have to beat half the area unlike those tournaments.
GPP play of the week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP play of the week due to the chances. A little over a week ago he had been a -255 favored and that’s what led to his elevated $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and all the worth is currently on Ngannou in his $7.2k price label. I anticipate Ngannou are the greatest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he’ll kill off near half the area. Furthermore, if Cain wins he is probably scoring over 100-points. I expect his possession to go down the more his gambling line reduces and that’s what makes him a great GPP play. He’s a 0-point floor, so I do not care for him in money game, but for GPPs we want boom or float to attempt and reach this 1st place prize.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of the week. He’s $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he is just a +125 underdog. I believe he’s a fantastic shot of winning this battle and I am picking him to get his hands raised. I expect this to be a very close fight, but I believe Fili will be the fighter striking at the higher pace and that’s precisely what I think do it for him to the judges’ scorecards. I don’t see Fili having 100+ stage upside but we do not really need that in his $7.4k price tag. I believe he has a great shot at getting at 10x, so he is playable in most formats for me.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of this week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I believe have a hard time seeing her on the 20k lineup in her wages. I enjoy the $9k range a great deal more than her and they all have higher ceilings using their grappling-based match programs. Andrea Lee scored well within her UFC debut, but this is because she didn’t use grappling there. I really don’t see her doing this in this match because I think Evans-Smith has the edge on the ground and she should be the one looking for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this battle, then she is going to have to get it done on the toes and I don’t see her with a high ceiling without a finish. The only reason to utilize her is because she is going to be super low owned, and it will make your lineup contrarian, but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I’m 57-34 for +188.13un (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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